Domestic Real Estate Transaction Volume Rebounds, Copper Prices Expected to be Supported Today [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

LME copper opened at $9,550.5/mt last Friday, initially fluctuated slightly, and then rose to a high of $9,629.5/mt. It subsequently fell back amid fluctuations, hitting a low of $9,521/mt during the session, and finally closed at $9,539/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest reached 272,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE copper 2412 contract opened at 76,680 yuan/mt, initially hit a high of 77,170 yuan/mt, then fell to a low of 76,350 yuan/mt during the session, and finally rebounded to close at 76,780 yuan/mt, up 0.38%. Trading volume reached 54,000 lots, and open interest reached 156,000 lots. Macro front, the US added 12,000 non-farm jobs in October, the smallest increase since December 2020. Traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Fed next week. Meanwhile, a New York Times poll showed Harris slightly leading Trump in several swing states. Domestically, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October returned to expansion territory. Additionally, data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development showed that the total transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in October achieved growth for the first time after eight consecutive months of decline. The US dollar index fell, domestic macro factors were favorable, but consumption remained flat, leading to fluctuating copper prices. On the fundamentals, due to the concentrated delivery of long-term contracts at the beginning of the month and a slight increase in downstream purchasing enthusiasm, premiums rose, and supply might be somewhat tight. As year-end approaches, downstream consumption is unlikely to see a significant increase. Overall, with domestic real estate transaction data rebounding, the market might receive some boost, and copper prices are expected to have some support today.